A fresh spike in tensions between China and Japan is reshaping the strategic map of East Asia. What began as sharp diplomatic exchanges has now moved into military planning, public warnings and economic pushback. For many Filipinos, this may feel like something happening “up there” in Northeast Asia, but geography, alliances and shared security concerns mean Manila is inevitably pulled into the conversation.
Japan’s decision to deploy a missile unit on Yonaguni, an island sitting just over a hundred kilometres from Taiwan, triggered an unusually fiery reaction from Beijing. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning accused Tokyo of “creating regional tension” and “provoking confrontation.” This comes on the heels of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi saying a Chinese attack on Taiwan could force Japan into a military response: a red line from China’s point of view.
Beijing’s retaliation quickly expanded: seafood bans, halts on Japanese film releases, and travel warnings. These may sound symbolic, but they mark the lowest point in the relationship in years.
Why Southeast Asia is uneasy as tensions between China and Japan escalate
For ASEAN states, the two major powers arguing so close to Taiwan creates an uncomfortable backdrop. Countries are still recovering economically, and another round of great-power rivalry is the last thing the region wants. Yet this standoff is not simply between Tokyo and Beijing. The Taiwan Strait sits at the centre of regional trade, energy routes and the stability of the Indo-Pacific. Anything that happens there, good or bad, ripples outward.
The Philippine angle: geography, alliances, and uncomfortable realities
Here in Manila, officials rarely say it aloud, but the country is already tied into the wider dynamics surrounding Taiwan. Geography alone makes it unavoidable: the Batanes islands sit close enough that any conflict in Taiwan would immediately spill into our airspace and waters. The Philippines is also deepening ties with Japan and the United States at a pace not seen in decades. Joint patrols, expanded access agreements, and growing intelligence cooperation place Manila squarely inside the network of states preparing for possible instability around Taiwan.
This is why the Philippines cannot pretend to be a bystander. Taiwan’s future matters directly to us. If Beijing ever moved militarily on the island, it would reshape security dynamics across the region, especially in the West Philippine Sea where Filipino vessels already face harassment. A weakened, isolated or coerced Taiwan would shift the regional balance in China’s favour (something Manila has every reason to watch carefully).
Japan’s decisions therefore carry weight here. Tokyo is one of Manila’s closest security partners and one of the few countries investing heavily in Philippine maritime capacity. When Japan hardens its stance toward Beijing, it affects how China behaves, including in areas Manila calls its own maritime backyard.
