The China-Taiwan conflict has sharpened again since mid-August, with Beijing preparing a massive military parade on Wednesday, Sept. 3, and Taipei firing back in the battle of narratives. For Filipinos, this is not a distant storyline. It touches security, trade routes, overseas workers, and Manila’s diplomatic footing in a tense neighborhood.
Beijing’s pageantry, Taipei’s pushback
Taiwanese officials say China is splashing out more than 36 billion yuan (over $5 billion) (about 2% of Beijing’s annual defense budget) on the World War II anniversary parade. They frame the spectacle as costly politics and contested history, arguing that the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal name) carried most of the wartime fight against Japan. Beijing counters that such claims “blaspheme” the sacrifices attributed to the Communist Party.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will lead the parade, joined by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Such a lineup signals not only domestic pageantry but also a show of geopolitical alignment.
In Taipei, President Lai Ching-te marked the eve of the parade by recalling Taiwan’s 1958 victories during the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. He stressed that unity deters coercion and that “aggression will fail.” The message was calibrated: connect wartime memory, Cold War skirmishes, and today’s frequent PLA flights and sailings around the island, while warning that the security environment is “more severe than ever.”
A quick rewind for context
All through August, Beijing and Taipei sparred over who gets to claim the mantle of World War II’s legacy. In Beijing’s telling, the Communist Party under Mao Zedong carried the nation through the fight against Japan, and that triumph is part of the party’s claim to rule today. Across the strait, though, the story is different. Most historians point out that it was Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist forces that shouldered the bulk of the battles, before retreating to Taiwan after the civil war. That history still echoes in Taiwan’s official name, the Republic of China. To press its point, Taipei urged people not to attend the Beijing parade. Even so, Hung Hsiu-chu, a former Kuomintang chairwoman, broke ranks and accepted the invitation.
While today’s Kuomintang leaders often favor dialogue with the mainland, they still insist their party led the wartime resistance, proof that the dispute is not only about distant battles, but also about present claims to legitimacy.
Why the China-Taiwan conflict matters to the Philippines
Manila sits close to the flashpoint and maintains a treaty alliance with the United States. That geography and alliance give the Philippines limited room for error. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has warned that if a U.S.–China war breaks out over Taiwan, the Philippines could be “dragged, kicking and screaming” into the crisis, an unvarnished admission of risk, not appetite. Earlier in August, Beijing bristled at his remarks and filed diplomatic protests.
Even as Malacañang talks tough on deterrence, the Department of Foreign Affairs has reiterated that the Philippines does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state and remains compliant with its One-China policy. That line reflects legal continuity, but the politics are shifting. On Aug. 28, Senator Raffy Tulfo urged a rethink of that compliance if Taiwan’s democracy is threatened, a sign that domestic debate is opening up. The administration now has to hold together three moving pieces: alliance commitments, crisis management, and a public increasingly aware that Taiwan’s fate affects Filipino lives.
Manila’s balancing act
So what should Filipinos watch in the coming days? First, whether PLA activity around the strait spikes after the parade. Second, how Washington and Tokyo calibrate presence and messaging in response. Third, any new guidance from Manila on civilian safety, especially for OFWs in Taiwan and residents of the Batanes corridor. The China-Taiwan conflict is still a contest of pressure short of war, but miscalculation is the region’s constant hazard.
